For oil’s sake?

If the people of Scotland want to become an independent nation to take advantage of their natural resources, then they would have been better off doing so when said resources were easy to get at.

The inescapable fact about North Sea oil & gas now is that what is left difficult to get at: either new fields further out in deeper waters, or the as-yet unrecoverable reserves of existing fields.

There will likely to have to be some pain before the gains of independence are realised

There were two key drivers behind last year’s record spending levels of £13.5 billion: tax incentives encouraging investment in previously uneconomic fields, and the higher costs associated with developing or extending the life of said fields.

Would the tax incentives encouraging these investment levels remain after Scottish independence? This a big uncertainty, as is the entire Scottish economy after independence.

And uncertainty alone seems to be enough for many firms to reconsider their business plans in the North Sea: last week’s survey of IChemE members (which showed that more than 60% of chemical engineers in Scotland will vote against independence) quoted one of its members as saying that two of the oil & gas projects he was working on would not go ahead if there was a Yes vote on Thursday.

One anonymous quote doesn’t prove an industry exodus, but given that oil & gas is a global industry, it is undeniable that Scotland is better able to compete against rivals for potential investment when it is part of a larger, stronger and more established economy.

All of which is to say that, from an economic viewpoint, and especially from an engineering one, Scotland separating itself from the rest of the UK makes little sense.

However, a vote for independence isn’t an economic one – it isn’t just about oil. There are many reasons relating to national identity, culture, and political autonomy that can help out forward a valid case for Yes vote.

It isn’t a short-term decision either, and while there may be turmoil for the oil & gas industry and wider economy in the near future, there is no reason to suggest that Scotland could not weather the storm and come out the other side as a strong independent nation.

Despite all the economic problems that independence could create, if I were Scottish I think I would probably would vote in favour of independence; I would just make sure that my eyes were wide open to the fact that there would likely to have to be some economic pain before the gains of independence were realised.