BP predicts oil & gas energy ‘dominance’
11 Feb 2016
The 2016 Energy Outlook report published by BP suggests oil and gas will remain the dominant form of energy, meeting roughly 80% of the world’s total energy supplies in 2035.
According to the report, energy demand is expected to increase 34% by 2035, with energy derived from fossil fuels accounting for 60% of the increase.
Gas is expected to be the ‘fastest growing’ fossil fuel – increasing at a rate of 1.8% a year until 2035.
Supply of natural gas is predicted to grow robustly, with the share of shale gas in total gas production rising from 10% in 2014 to nearly 25% by 2035, the report says.
Oil, meanwhile, is expected to grow at just under 1% a year over the same period.
The outlook for the next 20 years is for continuing growth of energy demand as the world economy expands and more energy is required
BP group chief economist Spencer Dale
“The outlook for the next 20 years is for continuing growth of energy demand as the world economy expands and more energy is required to power higher levels of activity,” said BP group chief economist Spencer Dale, who launched the report in London yesterday.
The report also highlights ‘significant changes’ in the energy mix, with growth of lower-carbon fuels outstripping their carbon-intense counterparts. BP says this is due to the world transitioning to a lower-carbon future.
Indeed, figures within the report suggest renewables, such as biofuels, will grow at a rate of 6.6% per year, increasing their overall stake in the energy mix to 9% by 2035.
“As this year’s Outlook demonstrates, the world is going to continue to demand growing supplies of energy but the mix of those supplies is changing and becoming less carbon-intense,” said Bob Dudley, BP group chief executive.
“However, further policy action may be necessary to meet international targets to limit carbon emissions,” Dudley added.
Despite Dudley’s concern, the report suggests carbon emissions growth will be ‘sharply reduced’ from 2.1% a year to 0.9%. The reduction reflects “faster improvements in energy efficiency and a reduction in the carbon intensity of energy”, BP said.
Meanwhile, to ensure the world achieves an even faster transition to ‘low carbon’, the report recommends further policy action coupled with a “meaningful” global price for carbon is needed.
Earlier this year, BP announced plans to axe 4,000 jobs globally, with 600 expected to go in the North Sea.
The cuts were due to the recent crash in oil prices, BP said.
