Energy demand begins to fall
15 Jan 2000
World energy demand fell by 0.1 per cent in 1998 - a modest decline, but the first since 1982. According to BP Amoco's annual survey of world energy use, this was not the only notable change seen last year in the usually-stable area.
The past decade has seen stable trends in energy usage - notably steady increases as developing economies build industrial infrastructures. This all but ground to a halt last year, however. Consumption in the `mature' markets of North America and Europe remained mostly flat in 1998, which helped stabilise the overall market; these regions account for three-fifths of all the energy used around the world. Warmer weather led to declines in gas usage in both the US and Northern Europe. But usage declined in the Asian countries hit by economic turmoil; and in China, where BP Amoco believes structural changes in the market are moving the economy towards low energy-intensive industry, and away from coal.
Encouragingly, global carbon emissions also fell in 1998 - the first drop since 1992, although the decline was modest, at just 0.5 per cent. The West's emission reduction efforts are beginning to show - the OECD registered its first fall since 1991. In Asia, emissions fell by 2.5 per cent, compared with a 3.4 per cent annual growth for the past decade.
