SCADAs open up

The SCADA systems equipment market is experiencing a driving force that is not necessarily welcomed by the end-user, namely the emergence of the Windows NT 4.0 operating system as the de-facto standard.

End-users are disquieted by the speed with which a business operating system is being promoted for use in control activities, some of them mission critical, says a new strategic study by consulting company Frost & Sullivan.

Many engineers, whilst bowing to the inevitable, feel that the pace of introduction is too rapid for an operating system that is known to crash in the office environment. Whilst this may just result in a revenue loss when a humanmachine graphics interface crashes, the consequences could be far more severe when the Windows operating system is used to run a control computer, such as the new range of 'soft' PLCs available.

Mik Sabiers, industry manager at Frost & Sullivan, says: 'Although powerful, reliable operating systems exist, such as the compact QNX or UNIX and its variants, none has the marketing strength of a multi-billion dollar company behind them, more used to selling office and home products.'

One of the key changes to occur in the industry is the move towards open systems; systems that can communicate with other manufacturers' software and hardware. Part of this is an inevitable consequence of software that can run under so-called universal operating systems (UNIX and Microsoft, for example), and part is the demand by customers for interchangeability and system integration.

The SCADA systems equipment market in Europe demonstrated rapid growth between 1994 and 1997 as projects that had been delayed by recessionary forces were revived. The 1997 market amounted to $731.4 million.

Although recessionary pressures are lifting in the consumer market, many of the purchasers of SCADA systems equipment are large government owned utilities and there has been a dampening of infrastructure spending across Europe. However, new technologies appearing on the market are forecast to prompt further growth in revenues around 2000 and 2001. Total revenues are expected to reach $1.12 billion in 2004. A compound annual growth rate of 6.3 percent is forecast for the market between 1997 and 2004.

The graphics workstations sector is exhibiting the fastest growth, expected to rise from its 1997 revenue share of 23 per cent to reach 28 per cent by the end of the forecast period (2004). The main factor behind this growth is the continued move to SCADA applications using software running under the Windows NT 4.0, rather than under UNIX operating systems.

The move towards PCs will have an adverse effect on the computer hosts sector and this sector is showing the lowest growth rate as a direct result.

ON THE FIELDBUSES

The growing use of fieldbus communications is expected to boost sales of lower priced data acquisition devices and PLCs for use in SCADA are forecast to have steady growth as they replace some RTUs and computer hosts.

Once the principal part of a SCADA system, computer hosts have seen their tasks distributed, to some extent, to intelligent field devices such as PLCs. Part of their computing power has also been transferred to graphic workstations. Their market share of revenues had declined considerably by 1997, and is forecast to have fallen even more by 2004.

The market for PLCs for SCADA use held the largest share of overall revenues in the 1997 SCADA systems equipment market, accounting for a 31.9 per cent share. Revenue growth has however been affected by strong price competition which is anticipated to continue in future years. PLC manufacturers are offering open standards in a bid to make the product more attractive to customers and fight competition from alternatives, for example personal computers with open standards. New products such as the soft PLCs are expected to see increased user interest, but will also contribute to greater competitive pressures.

Market growth of SCADA systems equipment is highest in France, Germany, Scandinavia, and Benelux. In Germany the continued integration of utilities serving the former East Germany is a factor, whereas in Scandinavia demand from the oil and gas industry is the major driver.

In Spain and Portugal, new industries, such as pharmaceutical firms, are installing advanced automation, including small area SCADA systems.

The SCADA systems equipment market is expected to grow steadily in terms of revenues. There will be a continued blurring of the distinctions between DCS, SCADA systems and PLC/MMI systems that will effectively mean that the use of SCADA systems will appear to spread. Opportunities for entering the market will be highest for firms who wish to supply intelligent field devices, communicating via a standard fieldbus or LAN.