Covid’s long tail costing UK productivity billions, claims research
13 Nov 2024
The effects of ‘long Covid’ may be costing the UK economy billions of pounds as continued illness and absence impacts productivity.
A study by researchers based at University College London (UCL) and working with associated institutions analysed thousands of patients being treated for the extended effects of the virus over a two year period.
Results appear to confirm the concerns of process industry leaders and those in other sectors about the long-term impact of the epidemic on working life.
Data suggests nearly three quarters (72%) of respondents who lost working days at the start of the period studied were continuing to do so six months later. Of those, one in three said they were unable to perform any work during that time.
Productivity losses from absences and illness accounted for the majority of the long Covid economic effect. Over that initial half year period studied, the average cost per patient was calculated at £931 per month by the research team.
Given that ONS figures estimate some 2 million people to be suffering from long Covid, the potential cost might run into millions, suggested senior author professor Manuel Gomes of UCL Epidemiology & Health Care.
Multiplying that 2 million by the average productivity cost per person over a 12 month period means the bill associated with working days lost could potentially cost the economy up to £20billion a year, said Gomes.
“Obviously patients in our sample are likely to be more symptomatic and/or impaired than the average long Covid patient, but even if only 10% of all long Covid patients in the UK were significantly impaired, that would equate to £2 billion per year,” he stated.
The study – funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) and carried out by UCL with the university of Exeter and Southampton, Barts Health NHS Trust and the organisation Living With – was published in the journal BMJ Open.
It focused on 4,087 individuals who were referred to long Covid clinics and registered in the Living With Covid Recovery programme between August 2020 and August 2022.
The patients were required to use a mobile app to track their symptoms as part of their treatment, answering questions about levels of fatigue, brain fog, health-related quality of life, relationships and their ability to work.
Productivity loss was calculated with reference to national average hourly pay (£13.57 per hour) and the average working hours per week (33.9 hours).
Commenting on the study, the University of Exeter’s professor William Henley remarked: “The persistent functional impairment and poor quality of life of long Covid patients over time significantly affects the individual’s ability to work and presents a significant economic burden to the individuals themselves as well as to the economy.
“Addressing ongoing challenges related to fatigue and its impact on work absenteeism should be a priority for future health care interventions aimed at supporting the recovery of individuals with long Covid.”
Pic: Los Muertos Crew
