Global woes keep UK manufacturing PMI under 50 for fifth month
13 Mar 2025
UK manufacturing suffered a fifth disappointing month in February with the CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchase Managers’ Index once again falling below the 50 mark.
The actual level recorded for last month, 46.9, was down from the previous 48.3. It is also the lowest for more than a year; since December 2023.
Economist at analysts RSM UK, Tom Pugh cited the influence of economic and political trends in the wider world as contributing factors.
“A combination of weak growth in our major trading partners such as France and Germany, combined with uncertainty around US tariffs, and therefore a potential global trade war, continues to weigh heavily on manufacturing firms,” stated Pugh.
Even were the country to avoid direct US tariffs, increased global trade barriers would have a stagflationary impact on the broader UK economy and especially manufacturing.
“What’s more, if the US imposes large tariffs on its other trading partners, goods that would have gone to the US will be diverted elsewhere, potentially increasing international competition for UK manufactured goods,” added Pugh.
His colleague and national head of manufacturing Mike Thornton acknowledged supply chain issues made price rises “inevitable” but pointed to the increase in future output to a six month high of 73.1.
“[It] shows there is reason for the industry to be cautiously optimistic about demand with a more encouraging long-term trajectory,” said Thornton.
Additionally, Pugh commented that, despite the employment balance lingering at 39.5, its lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic, the labour market was holding up better.
“While hiring may have slowed, there has not been the collapse in employment that the surveys suggest,” judged Pugh.
