UK Government energy policy unrealistic

The UK Government's energy policy is hopelessly unrealistic, expecting far too much from renewable energy sources and ignoring serious concerns about reliable gas supplies, the Royal Academy of Engineering has told Energy Minister Brian Wilson in a report published on August 30. The Academy's engineering assessment is highly critical of the Energy Review published by the Cabinet Office Performance and Innovation Unit on February 15.

The Academy's most immediate concern is about security of gas supplies, which the Energy Review assumes will continue to be plentiful and relatively cheap. However, the DTI's own figures indicate that, by 2020, the UK might need to import up to 90% of its gas requirements. The Academy says that the UK could experience gas shortages as soon as 2004/5 in a severe winter.

While Russia is expected to double its gas exports to the EU by 2010, the UK Government must address the planning, funding and operation questions involved in expanding the pan-European gas transmission network so that we can access imported gas. The report says that the UK will also need to build new storage facilities as it becomes a gas importer. The Academy estimates this could cost the Government up to £13 billion by 2020, as the market is not likely to bear the cost.

The Energy Review sets a target of generating 20% of our energy from renewable sources by 2020. While this is a laudable aim, the Academy says that it is over-optimistic and fails to address the fundamental problem with all renewable sources - they are intermittent.

'Experience on the Continent, especially in Denmark, has shown that grid stability can be adversely affected when the penetration of intermittent renewables reaches about 15%,' says the Academy's report. As yet, the UK electricity grid is isolated, except for one interconnector to France - further interconnectors to Norway and the Netherlands are being investigated to help share electricity. As more renewable sources are connected to the grid electricity storage will become essential - our only current storage capacity is through hydroelectric storage schemes.

The Energy Review places great faith in wind energy and proposes installing 22,000 MW of turbine capacity by 2020. However, the Academy says that Met Office data shows that the country's wind record is not dependable - the most likely power output in real life is less than 7,000 MW. To ensure the supply, the Academy claims that it would have to be backed up by 16-19,000 MW of conventional generation plant, adding an extra £1 billion to the cost. Biomass is another promising power source for the future but it needs more research to make it practical - the whole of Kent would have to be covered in coppiced willow to replace the output of Dungeness B power station.

In order to meet UK commitments to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the UK must replace the nuclear reactors coming to the end of their lives with non-carbon emitting energy sources. The Energy Review conceded that the nuclear option should be kept open in case the UK cannot find alternative sources. But the Academy says that it takes so long to build new power stations that they need to be commissioned in the next few years if they are to be on stream in time to prevent supply shortages. It adds that 'Skilled people are also retiring so rapidly from the nuclear industry that we will soon be totally reliant on the nuclear expertise of other countries'. Nuclear waste disposal is clearly a problem but we have to deal with it irrespective of any decision on new build. 'Replacing the whole of the current UK nuclear capacity with new units would add only around 10% to the existing volumes of waste over the 40-year lifetimes of the reactors,' says the Academy's report.

The Academy is also very concerned about the Government's lack of attention to transport issues - 42% of UK energy consumption goes on transport. Major support for research to develop the hydrogen economy is urgently needed.

'The Energy Review appears to accept fuel switching, probably to hydrogen, as inevitable in the long term,' says the Academy's report. 'But it is unwilling to recommend early action or signal that this is the Government's preferred solution. Sustainable mobility is fast becoming a key political issue.'