Intelligence to lift drives market
9 Jul 2009
Now might not be such a bad time to start negotiating a deal with your drives supplier. Despite the current downturn and credit squeeze, the underlying fundamentals suggests a strong upward pressure on prices - and even supply issues - as soon as demand revives from its current slump.
Today, though, the UK market is stuck firmly in neutral, if not reverse. Demand for low-voltage AC & DC motor drives has dropped over the past 12 months, with sharp declines in orders from most market sectors.
The market has been heavily affected by the lack of capital being released by the banking sector and this has delayed a number of projects, believes Mark Chrimes, product manager, standard drives at Siemens Industry Automation and Drive Technologies.
"OEMs have been the main victims of the recession, with two main factors behind their demise," he explained. "One, a lack of capital being released by the banks for OEMs to invest in new products and expand production facilities, and, two, very fierce competition from overseas."
However, Chrimes said food and beverage industries were purchasing at levels similar to recent years, while waste-to-energy/recycling has been very strong. There is also still a continuing shift to new energy-efficient devices, he indicated.
Far reaching
Mike Lomax of Bosch Rexroth said: "No one can yet say with certainty how long this downturn will last and how far-reaching it will be. Some relief is being offered by the drop in raw material prices and inflation rates, the normalisation of exchange rates and, above all, the many measures worldwide to stabilise financial markets and economies. However, we are still a long way from recovery"
The standard machine tools sector has been significantly impacted by the downturn, but Bosch Rexroth is fortunate as it sells to many special purpose machine tool makers who normally work on long-term projects and high-end solutions, Lomax noted.
Bosch Rexroth is also still getting significant enquiries and orders from the food industry, Lomax, for example, citing a large dairy products producer that is struggling to meet demand, even with a major plant in the UK.
Meanwhile, Lenze marketing manager Geoff Spear reports "strong signs" that the recession has already bottomed out in most sectors. "There are exceptions such as automotive and building technology … but generally we expect a slow upward trend in the market during 2009, accelerating in 2010." At Siemens, Chrimes also sees a 'bottoming out' of the current slowdown: "The day-to-day run rate of businesses seems to have remained at similar levels now for the last three months or so. We have a very strong opportunity pipeline for the next 12 months and hopefully, with a bit of help from the banking sector, will see these come to fruition with our customers."
For his part, Jeff Whiting of Mitsubishi Electric sees some robustness in drive sales supporting existing projects, but adds that new OEM-build opportunities seem limited, probably due to the difficulties in getting funding in the UK. Another issue, he said, is that the UK water industry is just coming to the end of an investment period and drives sales are likely to be impacted by this.
According to Whiting, some sectors are still experiencing growth, such as the food and drinks industries, but there remains a reluctance to make major investment, with a number of projects being held back. "Investment in major projects has been impacted by the lack of investment, or uncompetitive borrowing rates, and this has had an impact in the short term," he said.
Pressure to invest
While the market remains in the doldrums commercially, there is growing pressure on plant operators to invest in new drives to meet both rising energy costs and new EU safety and environmental regulations. The latter include Machinery Directive 2006/42/EC, which takes effect at the end of 2009, and new rules requiring most new motors in the 0.75 to 375kW power range to meet a minimum IE2 efficiency level from June 2011.
Whiting noted: "Drives technology is finding many more friends amongst accountants, as well as engineers." This, he said, reflects a shift to energy-efficient operations, as well as a long-term trend towards automation as a cost-effective investment.
Likewise, Chrimes at Siemens said that energy efficiency was now top of the agenda for many customers and potential customers: "We are increasingly being contacted by finance directors and energy managers who want to know what we can do to help them save energy and money.
"Whilst there has been an economic slowdown and things are a bit quieter, they are making use of the opportunity to explore where savings can be made and what equipment can be installed when they have the capital to do so."
Many companies are also concerned about what the future holds in terms of legislation aimed at reducing energy consumption and cutting carbon emissions. According to Spear at Lenze, manufacturers are gearing up for the new Machinery Directive, which will extend the scope of the old directive and put increased onus on machine designers.
Linked in to the Machinery Directive, and also taking effect at the end of 2009, are the new machine safety regulations EN ISO 13849-1. These replace EN954-1 and require machine designers to make rigorous analysis of possible fault conditions, Spear noted.
Under the EU energy efficiency rules, meanwhile, Lenze believes that motor costs will increase compared with the lower-efficiency IE1 motors. "Currently that increase is around 25 to 30%, although the premium is likely to reduce as IE2 motor production ramps up," said Spear.
"We believe many UK customers will leave the change from IE1 to IE2 until the last moment. With a wide range of powers, speeds, mountings and options, the changeover of stocks to supply the UK market is a daunting task.
"We are planning the process now in order to ensure a smooth transition for our customers. As the implementation date approaches, it is possible that there will be shortages and bottlenecks in the market, as not all suppliers will be as well prepared."
For Whiting of Mitsubishi: "The new Machinery Directive will impact on the design of machines, encouraging the use of variable speed drives for safety and control. New drives are already appearing with certified safety inputs that will address some of the issues, along with secure operation and programming facilities."
As well as opportunities, changing regulations also create Machinery Directive's safety regulations mean we have had to re-certify everything at quite considerable cost due to redevelopment time, re-certification time and then the logistics for machines that will be shipped after November, as they will then fall under the new Directive.
"For longer time-scale projects, we are modifying our drives that were ordered early this year in order to meet the new standards because they are going to be commissioned next year."
Safety is also a key concern today for many potential customers, not least because of recent changes to corporate manslaughter laws, according to Chrimes. These, he said, place a much greater onus on employers to ensure that their factories are safe places to work in.
"Furthermore, towards the end of the year, the safety legislation governing factories, plants and their equipment is set to change again, so I can only see this becoming even more of a factor in the future," the Siemens manager added.
In terms of improving drives technology, Lenze manager Spear suggests that in some ways we should welcome the current recession for giving time to stop and review and optimise existing designs.
Machine builders are now more open to innovations, while end-users are waking up to the impact of running costs and lifetime costs, and demanding such data from their machine suppliers, he added.
Technologies in demand
Variable speed drives (VSDs) are proving very popular due to the safety factor concerns mentioned above, reported Chrimes of Siemens.
Plug 'n' play drives, he said, are also proving a popular choice for many at the moment. They are quick and easy to install and so are proving a popular option for companies that want a drive that is not too complicated and won't take up too much of their staff's valuable time.
"Companies are also becoming increasingly concerned about the problems posed by harmonics and we have seen an upsurge in people asking us to advise them on correction equipment," said Chrimes. "Siemens offers a service where we can go to a site and install harmonic measuring equipment for a week. At the end of the week, we will produce a report and advice on what course of action to take and where improvements can be made."
According to Lomax, higher technology offerings are now most in demand, whereas more routine drives are less popular. This, he said, means that the total cost of ownership has become a significant factor, especially when training is required.
An increasing number of Bosch Rexroth drives are going out with a PLC built inside them as acceptance of this technology is now going up and up, continued the Bosch Rexroth manager.
"People have had in mind that they need the traditional PLC or motion controller, but it has taken time for them to get their head around the fact that you can put a PLC in the drive and ... [it will] have more thinking capability than the control system you traditionally put on the lines.
"Machine diagnostics or productivity tools within the drive mean it not only looks after its own diagnostics but can also look at the load profiles of the machines and check what they did before.
"If it's outside set parameters, it can flag an error and look at changes in the temperature of the motor to enable intelligent monitoring."
Mitsubishi's current perspective on technology-trends is that producers are moving to more standardised products with better communication at every level within manufacturing systems to provide enhanced traceability and more highly controlled automation.
Other technologies required today include the optimisation of power within the process, and the reduction of out-of-spec, waste products, according to Whiting.
"This high degree of integration brings drives firmly within the realms of lean manufacturing and system optimisation," the Mitsubishi manager commented. "Further goals include ... long-life, low-maintenance products with the drive reporting operation conditions and offering maintenance information in order to minimise operational downtime."
At Lenze, Spear expects to see small but significant changes in demand into 2010, including an extension of safety functionality down from high-end servos to frequency inverters. "Purchase cost can be reduced and money is saved on installation time and panel space by using one device to achieve two tasks, such as frequency inverters that can control positioning as well as the usual speed functions," he explained.
Developments are moving faster in the area of communications, where complex drive tasks are driving a change towards industrial Ethernet buses, such as PROFINET, POWERLINK and EtherCAT, said Spear.
"They give greater TCP/IP transparency, easier integration, access to new technologies such as web and wireless systems, and are appreciably more efficient to operate than field buses," he explained.
Last word on new technologies to Chrimes, who noted how product demonstrations are proving increasingly popular in the market: "In the past companies used to have the time and resources to research what equipment they were looking for and read up on it. Nowadays customers and potential customers are looking for a more hands on approach and are keen to see the equipment in action.
Today, though, the UK market is stuck firmly in neutral, if not reverse. Demand for low-voltage AC & DC motor drives has dropped over the past 12 months, with sharp declines in orders from most market sectors.
The market has been heavily affected by the lack of capital being released by the banking sector and this has delayed a number of projects, believes Mark Chrimes, product manager, standard drives at Siemens Industry Automation and Drive Technologies.
"OEMs have been the main victims of the recession, with two main factors behind their demise," he explained. "One, a lack of capital being released by the banks for OEMs to invest in new products and expand production facilities, and, two, very fierce competition from overseas."
However, Chrimes said food and beverage industries were purchasing at levels similar to recent years, while waste-to-energy/recycling has been very strong. There is also still a continuing shift to new energy-efficient devices, he indicated.
Far reaching
Mike Lomax of Bosch Rexroth said: "No one can yet say with certainty how long this downturn will last and how far-reaching it will be. Some relief is being offered by the drop in raw material prices and inflation rates, the normalisation of exchange rates and, above all, the many measures worldwide to stabilise financial markets and economies. However, we are still a long way from recovery"
The standard machine tools sector has been significantly impacted by the downturn, but Bosch Rexroth is fortunate as it sells to many special purpose machine tool makers who normally work on long-term projects and high-end solutions, Lomax noted.
Bosch Rexroth is also still getting significant enquiries and orders from the food industry, Lomax, for example, citing a large dairy products producer that is struggling to meet demand, even with a major plant in the UK.
Meanwhile, Lenze marketing manager Geoff Spear reports "strong signs" that the recession has already bottomed out in most sectors. "There are exceptions such as automotive and building technology … but generally we expect a slow upward trend in the market during 2009, accelerating in 2010." At Siemens, Chrimes also sees a 'bottoming out' of the current slowdown: "The day-to-day run rate of businesses seems to have remained at similar levels now for the last three months or so. We have a very strong opportunity pipeline for the next 12 months and hopefully, with a bit of help from the banking sector, will see these come to fruition with our customers."
For his part, Jeff Whiting of Mitsubishi Electric sees some robustness in drive sales supporting existing projects, but adds that new OEM-build opportunities seem limited, probably due to the difficulties in getting funding in the UK. Another issue, he said, is that the UK water industry is just coming to the end of an investment period and drives sales are likely to be impacted by this.
According to Whiting, some sectors are still experiencing growth, such as the food and drinks industries, but there remains a reluctance to make major investment, with a number of projects being held back. "Investment in major projects has been impacted by the lack of investment, or uncompetitive borrowing rates, and this has had an impact in the short term," he said.
Pressure to invest
While the market remains in the doldrums commercially, there is growing pressure on plant operators to invest in new drives to meet both rising energy costs and new EU safety and environmental regulations. The latter include Machinery Directive 2006/42/EC, which takes effect at the end of 2009, and new rules requiring most new motors in the 0.75 to 375kW power range to meet a minimum IE2 efficiency level from June 2011.
Whiting noted: "Drives technology is finding many more friends amongst accountants, as well as engineers." This, he said, reflects a shift to energy-efficient operations, as well as a long-term trend towards automation as a cost-effective investment.
Likewise, Chrimes at Siemens said that energy efficiency was now top of the agenda for many customers and potential customers: "We are increasingly being contacted by finance directors and energy managers who want to know what we can do to help them save energy and money.
"Whilst there has been an economic slowdown and things are a bit quieter, they are making use of the opportunity to explore where savings can be made and what equipment can be installed when they have the capital to do so."
Many companies are also concerned about what the future holds in terms of legislation aimed at reducing energy consumption and cutting carbon emissions. According to Spear at Lenze, manufacturers are gearing up for the new Machinery Directive, which will extend the scope of the old directive and put increased onus on machine designers.
Linked in to the Machinery Directive, and also taking effect at the end of 2009, are the new machine safety regulations EN ISO 13849-1. These replace EN954-1 and require machine designers to make rigorous analysis of possible fault conditions, Spear noted.
Under the EU energy efficiency rules, meanwhile, Lenze believes that motor costs will increase compared with the lower-efficiency IE1 motors. "Currently that increase is around 25 to 30%, although the premium is likely to reduce as IE2 motor production ramps up," said Spear.
"We believe many UK customers will leave the change from IE1 to IE2 until the last moment. With a wide range of powers, speeds, mountings and options, the changeover of stocks to supply the UK market is a daunting task.
"We are planning the process now in order to ensure a smooth transition for our customers. As the implementation date approaches, it is possible that there will be shortages and bottlenecks in the market, as not all suppliers will be as well prepared."
For Whiting of Mitsubishi: "The new Machinery Directive will impact on the design of machines, encouraging the use of variable speed drives for safety and control. New drives are already appearing with certified safety inputs that will address some of the issues, along with secure operation and programming facilities."
As well as opportunities, changing regulations also create Machinery Directive's safety regulations mean we have had to re-certify everything at quite considerable cost due to redevelopment time, re-certification time and then the logistics for machines that will be shipped after November, as they will then fall under the new Directive.
"For longer time-scale projects, we are modifying our drives that were ordered early this year in order to meet the new standards because they are going to be commissioned next year."
Safety is also a key concern today for many potential customers, not least because of recent changes to corporate manslaughter laws, according to Chrimes. These, he said, place a much greater onus on employers to ensure that their factories are safe places to work in.
"Furthermore, towards the end of the year, the safety legislation governing factories, plants and their equipment is set to change again, so I can only see this becoming even more of a factor in the future," the Siemens manager added.
In terms of improving drives technology, Lenze manager Spear suggests that in some ways we should welcome the current recession for giving time to stop and review and optimise existing designs.
Machine builders are now more open to innovations, while end-users are waking up to the impact of running costs and lifetime costs, and demanding such data from their machine suppliers, he added.
Technologies in demand
Variable speed drives (VSDs) are proving very popular due to the safety factor concerns mentioned above, reported Chrimes of Siemens.
Plug 'n' play drives, he said, are also proving a popular choice for many at the moment. They are quick and easy to install and so are proving a popular option for companies that want a drive that is not too complicated and won't take up too much of their staff's valuable time.
"Companies are also becoming increasingly concerned about the problems posed by harmonics and we have seen an upsurge in people asking us to advise them on correction equipment," said Chrimes. "Siemens offers a service where we can go to a site and install harmonic measuring equipment for a week. At the end of the week, we will produce a report and advice on what course of action to take and where improvements can be made."
According to Lomax, higher technology offerings are now most in demand, whereas more routine drives are less popular. This, he said, means that the total cost of ownership has become a significant factor, especially when training is required.
An increasing number of Bosch Rexroth drives are going out with a PLC built inside them as acceptance of this technology is now going up and up, continued the Bosch Rexroth manager.
"People have had in mind that they need the traditional PLC or motion controller, but it has taken time for them to get their head around the fact that you can put a PLC in the drive and ... [it will] have more thinking capability than the control system you traditionally put on the lines.
"Machine diagnostics or productivity tools within the drive mean it not only looks after its own diagnostics but can also look at the load profiles of the machines and check what they did before.
"If it's outside set parameters, it can flag an error and look at changes in the temperature of the motor to enable intelligent monitoring."
Mitsubishi's current perspective on technology-trends is that producers are moving to more standardised products with better communication at every level within manufacturing systems to provide enhanced traceability and more highly controlled automation.
Other technologies required today include the optimisation of power within the process, and the reduction of out-of-spec, waste products, according to Whiting.
"This high degree of integration brings drives firmly within the realms of lean manufacturing and system optimisation," the Mitsubishi manager commented. "Further goals include ... long-life, low-maintenance products with the drive reporting operation conditions and offering maintenance information in order to minimise operational downtime."
At Lenze, Spear expects to see small but significant changes in demand into 2010, including an extension of safety functionality down from high-end servos to frequency inverters. "Purchase cost can be reduced and money is saved on installation time and panel space by using one device to achieve two tasks, such as frequency inverters that can control positioning as well as the usual speed functions," he explained.
Developments are moving faster in the area of communications, where complex drive tasks are driving a change towards industrial Ethernet buses, such as PROFINET, POWERLINK and EtherCAT, said Spear.
"They give greater TCP/IP transparency, easier integration, access to new technologies such as web and wireless systems, and are appreciably more efficient to operate than field buses," he explained.
Last word on new technologies to Chrimes, who noted how product demonstrations are proving increasingly popular in the market: "In the past companies used to have the time and resources to research what equipment they were looking for and read up on it. Nowadays customers and potential customers are looking for a more hands on approach and are keen to see the equipment in action.
