Downturn to brake large motors market next year

Wellingborough, UK – The large motors market is set to feel the full impact of the global economic downturn in 2010, according to IMS Research, which expects revenues to decline by more than 15%, and unit shipments are projected to drop by more than 13%. Market growth is forecast to be relatively flat in 2011, as the economic recovery is expected to be gradual and prolonged.

The outlook is in marked contrast to IMS' analysis for 2008, which estimates double-digit revenue and unit growth in 2008 - the market reaching a size of $3.5 billion, with more than 28,000 units shipped during the year. All regions and industry segments, it added, exhibited strong performance, with particularly rapid growth witnessed in China, and in the oil & gas, marine, metals, and mining sectors.

Full order books reported by leading suppliers of large motors coupled with manufacturing lead times that averaged between six months to one year are expected to cause the growth to carry over into 2009, IMS continued. The large motors market is forecast to increase by more than 5% in revenue terms this year, over 2008 levels.

The large motors market ahould return to double-digit growth rates by 2012, assuming economic recovery picks up momentum over time. The world market for large motors is forecast to grow by a CAGR of 1.9% in terms of revenues through 2013, said IMS.

Western Europe, the US, and China were the three largest regions in terms of large motor sales in 2008, together accounting for 62% of total market revenues. Other notable regional markets include Brazil, Japan, India, and the Middle East. Metals, oil & natural gas, and power generation were the three largest market segments in 2008, with sales of large motors into these industries accounting for about 56% of total revenues.

“There are two distinct groups of industries that have been affected to varying degrees," said Alex Chausovsky, research manager of the Motion & Drives group at IMS Research. "Industry sectors that have links to population growth and increased urbanisation, such as oil & natural gas, power generation, and water & wastewater, have held up relatively well during the recession. In contrast, heavy industry sectors such as marine, metals, mining, and pulp & paper, have suffered greatly as a result of the downturn.”

According to IMS, ABB and Siemens continue to dominate the large motors market in terms of market share, together accounting for nearly half of all market revenues in 2008. The firm listed other notable suppliers as including Converteam, GE, Teco, and TMEIC.