Ready for the FINAL COUNTDOWN?

`If there is a problem,' says ABB's group senior vice-president and Y2K task force leader Klaus Ragaller, `it will be because of people behaving strangely en masse. Problems could arise more through panic generated by widespread publicity of possible problems than by any specific problem itself.' Now to some, this view might seem over-confident or complacent, but it is neither. Both Ragaller and ABB's head of R&D Markus Bayegan have been working, along with over a thousand of their colleagues, on ABB's Y2K initiative for over two years now and have acquired an in-depth knowledge of industry's state of readiness for the rollover to 2000.

With its worldwide businesses embracing so many parts of countries' infrastructures such as electricity grids, power plants, pipeline systems, oil and gas platforms and water supplies, ABB is perhaps in a unique position to comment on what we can expect to happen at midnight on 31 December. `We have carried out extensive product testing,' reported Bayegan last month, `investigated over 30 000 customer systems and plants worldwide, run pilot rollover tests and put in place a worldwide call centre support network and early notification service for the actual rollover. This is why we are confident that the transition to the year 2000 will be a smooth one.'

Typical of ABB's efforts was the system rollover test carried out successfully in November last year at the 1260MW South Humber Bank CCGT power station. This involved a team of eight plant operators, four ABB engineers and an independent third-party observer. A `clock advance' was done on the system both with and without power - and, for good measure, a leap-year check was carried out at the same time.

South Humber was one of a number of various industrial sites around the world used to develop the Y2K methodology offered to all ABB customers. According to Ragaller, the experience gained from all the work done in customer plants `has given us confidence and we want to share that experience, partly to counter any scare stories in the media.'

A problem shared

What ABB's experience has shown is that if there are problems most can be solved quickly - generally, in less than two hours. But what few problems have been identified are already being shared by ABB through a comprehensive communications network that makes extensive use of the Internet. And, if that doesn't get the message across in time, the company has set up an `early notification service' in which `typical' power, process and other plants in New Zealand and South East Asia will act as early warning systems for the rest of the world. If any unexpected problems crop up there, then the rest of the world will have time to put things right or shut down plants safely for the rollover to 2000.

As part of its Y2K preparations Fisher-Rosemount is also setting up what it terms an `early reference system'. As with ABB's, this will monitor selected strategic plants in China, Taiwan, Malaysia and Australia. If any problems show up across a range of DeltaV, Provox and RS/3 control systems on these plants, then the information will be immediately flagged up on the company's `issue monitoring' page on its website.

Around-the-clock support

Other control majors such as Honeywell, Foxboro, Rockwell and Yokogawa have comprehensive web-based information on the compliance status of all their products and systems and all will be operating round-the-clock support services to cover the crucial time. And not just the majors - for example, the worldwide network of distributors for Wonderware's FactorySuite 2000, including Pantek in the UK, will be offering 24-hour, seven days a week support from 15 December all the way through to 10 March (to take in any leap year glitches).

Process operators are also taking a cautious approach. Dow Chemical is intending to idle or cut back production at about a tenth of its 450 plants worldwide. This will include most of the company's batch plants, and some of the continuous processes. Extra staff in emergency services, information systems and public affairs will also be on duty. On the whole, however, the company has advised its plant operators to treat Y2K as it would a severe storm - be alert for possible power and utility breakdowns, ensure that feedstock supply is secure, and batten down the hatches.

DuPont is taking a similar line, with most of its 320 plants operating normally or, at worst, placed on standby for several hours.

Batch operators in the US such as Ashland Chemical tend to prefer the shutdown option. Most of Ashland's plants are closed during public holidays in any case, but the company is also planning to throttle back its continuous processes for the few hours either side of the crucial midnight. Rhone-Poulenc has also opted for selective shutdowns, with agrochemicals plants all on standby as the calendar rolls over.

Eastman Chemical, meanwhile, is planning to `curtail activities', with only `essential' processes operating non-stop. Plants will run with product mixes and production schedules altered to minimise potential risks and hazards. The company also plans to stop all pilot processes, and several large-scale processes will be switched to idle mode before midnight and then restarted after safety and environmental checks. However, the company isn't planning any shutdowns at continuous plants; a `corporate command centre' will check that all plant operators on-shift that evening have response plans in place.

Utilities get `all clear'

So, assuming you are not holidaying in New Zealand, can you sleep - or party - more easily? If you are partying the most likely problem might be a shortage of cash, thanks to the prospect of `people panic' Ragaller warns us about. But if you are running a plant - or on call, `just in case' - then you should be relieved to hear that all UK utilities have been assessed at the maximum `blue' status under the Government's Action 2000 monitoring scheme. Both Ofwat and Ofgem - the regulatory offices for water and gas and electricity respectively - have reported that the independent assessments of these vital supplies have not identified `any risks of material disruption to the infrastructure processes.'

If you are still not sure, then there are suppliers of standby equipment (see panel) ready to help. But keep things in perspective - as ABB's UK ceo Eric Drewery reminded us last month, you have to be prepared for all eventualities at the best of times. On a recent visit to Nigeria, he had had to cope with 11 power cuts in two days, but life carried on as normal - for Nigeria that is. PE